NFL Week 3 betting first look: Lines we like now

  • Professional sports bettor finding advantages in inefficient markets
  • Joined ESPN in 2019
  • MS Sport Psychology, University of Utah

We hope our first-look piece for Week 2 paid dividends for everybody. I had referred to the 2011 lockout season, in which teams went without practices for more than five months during the offseason, and how overs hit at a 72% clip in Weeks 1 and 2 that season. We saw overs hit last Sunday at a similar rate. And heading into Saints-Raiders on Monday night, overs in Week 2 are 10-4-1. (Ravens-Texans closed at 48.5, 49 or 49.5 depending on the sportsbook, but I called it a push.)

I chose that particular angle because of all the speculation that offenses wouldn’t be in sync early this season, and that points would be at a premium. When we’re betting, we can’t stop there. It’s going to be really difficult to win long term by betting on assumptions. The argument that defenses would be rusty and suffer from communication issues certainly had merit as well.

Going into Week 3, I don’t have anything specific I am looking to bet on, or avoid. Here are a few of the early lines that stood out:

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 45)

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